From: VAR, ARIMAX and ARIMA models for nowcasting unemployment rate in Ghana using Google trends
Model name | MSE | RMSE | MAE | MAPE | MedAE | ME | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y1/12 | ARIMA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
ARIMAX | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
VAR | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
Y3/12 | ARIMA | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.69 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
ARIMAX | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.67 | 0.01 | 0.04 | |
VAR | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.40 | 0.01 | 0.04 | |
Y6/12 | ARIMA | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 1.76 | 0.05 | 0.18 |
ARIMAX | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 1.70 | 0.04 | 0.17 | |
VAR | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 1.45 | 0.05 | 0.16 | |
Y9/12 | ARIMA | 0.03 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 3.44 | 0.10 | 0.39 |
ARIMAX | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 3.36 | 0.10 | 0.38 | |
VAR | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 2.91 | 0.10 | 0.31 | |
Y12/12 | ARIMA | 0.10 | 0.31 | 0.24 | 5.78 | 0.18 | 0.67 |
ARIMAX | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.23 | 5.67 | 0.18 | 0.66 | |
VAR | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.19 | 4.58 | 0.16 | 0.49 | |
Y15/12 | ARIMA | 0.22 | 0.47 | 0.36 | 8.57 | 0.28 | 0.99 |
ARIMAX | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.35 | 8.40 | 0.28 | 0.97 | |
VAR | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 6.29 | 0.24 | 0.63 | |
Y18/12 | ARIMA | 0.41 | 0.64 | 0.49 | 11.51 | 0.40 | 1.28 |
ARIMAX | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.48 | 11.23 | 0.39 | 1.23 | |
VAR | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.34 | 7.75 | 0.32 | 0.70 | |
Y21/12 | ARIMA | 0.64 | 0.80 | 0.62 | 14.43 | 0.53 | 1.55 |
ARIMAX | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 13.98 | 0.53 | 1.47 | |
VAR | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.39 | 8.85 | 0.40 | 0.71 | |
Y24/12 | ARIMA | 0.92 | 0.96 | 0.76 | 17.27 | 0.69 | 1.79 |
ARIMAX | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.76 | 17.27 | 0.69 | 1.79 | |
VAR | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.43 | 9.57 | 0.49 | 0.71 | |
Average | ARIMA | 0.26 | 0.38 | 0.30 | 7.07 | 0.25 | 0.77 |
ARIMAX | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 6.94 | 0.25 | 0.75 | |
VAR | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.20 | 4.65 | 0.20 | 0.42 |